Friday, June 16, 2017

schemes of money making

Tube Investments, Zee Media, IIFL (Coming Up)

AB Nuvo (50% in 12 months)

scheme
AB Nuvo was merged into Grasim , giving 15 shares of Grasim (adjusted for 5:1 split, original was 3 Grasim shares for 10 Nuvo shares) for every 10 Shares of ABNuvo and further demerger of AB Capital from Grasim giving 21 shares of AB Capital for every 15 shares of Grasim

Timeline (12 Months)
Announcement: Aug'16
Nuvo merger with Grasim Scheme Record Date: Jul'17
ABCL demerger from Grasim  Record Date: Jul'17
ABCL Listing: Aug'17

Profit (90%)
Nuvo market price on Announcement in Aug'16: Rs 1400 per share (stock fell from 1500 to 1300 on announcement, taking avg of two)
Nuvo market price on Record Date in Jul'17: Rs 1887 per share
Grasim market price post ABNuvo merger: Rs 1300 per share (normalized for merger ratio =1300*15/10=1950)
Grasim price after ABCL demerger in Jul'17: Rs 1070 per share
ABCL listing price in Aug'17: Rs 237 per share

Investment 10 shares of Nuvo in Aug'16 = 10*1400=14000
Value of Grasim post merger with Nuvo in Jul'17 = 15*1300=19500
Value of Grasim after ABCL de-merger in Jul'17 = 15*1070=16050
Value of ABCL after listing in Aug'17 = 21*237=4977

Slightly complex due to multi step demerger and splits, etc but you got Rs 16050+4977=21027 for investment of Rs 14000 = 50% profit in 12 Months.

Sintex Industries (113% in 11 months)

scheme
Demerger of the custom moulding business and prefab business to Sintex-BAPL and Sintex Infra Projects, wholly owned subsidiaries of Sintex Plastics Technology (SPTL). The scheme involves issuance of equity shares of SPTL to the shareholders of SIL in the 1:1 ratio

Timeline (11 Months)
Announcement: Sep'16
Scheme Record Date: May'17
Sintex Plastics Listing: Jul'17

Profit (113%)
Sintex Ind market price on Announcement in Sep'16: Rs 78 per share
Sintex Ind market price adjusted for demerger of Sintex Plastics in Jul'17: Rs 32 per share
Sintex Ind market price on Record Date in Aug'16: Rs 108 per share
Sintex Plastics listing price in Jul'17: Rs 130 per share

Investment 100 shares of Sintex Ind in Sep'16 = 100*78 = Rs 7800
Value of Sintex Ind post demerger in May'17 = 100*32 = Rs 3200
Value of Sintex Plastics on listing in Jul'17 = 100*130 = Rs 13000

So you got Rs 16200 for investment of Rs 7800 = 113% profit in 11 Months.

Bhagyanagar India (90% in 22 Months)

scheme
Demerger of Solar Division of Bhagyanagar India Ltd., into STPL. STPL shall issue 4 equity shares of STPL for every 6 equity shares held by the equity shareholder of BIL.
Demerger of Real Estate Division of Bhagyanagar India Ltd., into Bhagyanagar Properties Ltd., BPL shall issue 1 equity share for every 2 equity share held by the equity shareholder of BIL.
Reduction of share capital: Equity capital of Bhagyanagar India Ltd (BIL) shall be reduced to half

Timeline (22 Months)
Announcement: Sept'15
Scheme Record Date: Mar'17
STPL: May'17
BPTL: Jul'17

Profit (90%)
BIL market price on Announcement in Sept'15: Rs 18 per share
BIL market price on Record Date in Mar'17: Rs 24 per share
BIL market price adjusted for demerger in Mar'17: Rs 34 per share (half number of shares post cap reduction)
STPL listing price in May'17: Rs 4.9 per share
BPTL listing price in Jul'17: Rs 28 per share

Investment 100 shares of BIL in Sept'15 = 100*18=1800
Value of BIL post demerger in Jan'16 = 50*34=1700
Value of STPL after listing in May'17 = 66*4.9=326
Value of BPTL after listing in Jul'17 = 50*28=1400

So you got Rs 3426 for investment of Rs 1800 = 90% profit in 22 Months.

Star Ferro and Cement (54% in 10 months)

scheme
Star Ferro (listed) was a holding company for Star cement (unlisted) and decided to consolidate the two entities, since the holding company had no other businesses. Consolidation would lead to tax & administration efficiencies. Earlier Star Cement was paying dividend to Holding company Star Ferro & Cement (listed entity) which would distribute it to the shareholders. Post consolidation Star cement would be able to pay dividend directly to the shareholder. As per the scheme shareholders of Star ferro & cement would receive 1.33 shares of Star cement for every 1 share of star ferro & cement.

Timeline (10 months)
Announcement: Aug'15
Scheme Record Date: Mar'17
Star Cement Listing: Jun'17

Profit (54%)
Star ferro market price on Announcement in Aug'15: Rs 110 per share
Star ferro price on Record Date in Mar'17: Rs 140 per share
Star ferro price after consolidation: N/A
Star cement listing price in Jun'17: Rs 130 per share

Investment 100 shares of Star ferro in Aug'15 = 100*110 = Rs 11000
Value of Star ferro post consolidation in Mar'17 = N/A
Number of shares of Star cement post consolidation in Jun'17 = 100*1.33 = 133
Value of Star cement on listing in Jun'17 = 133*130 = Rs 17290

So you got Rs 17290 for investment of Rs 11000 = 54% profit in 10 Months
Star Ferro and Cement (Scheme announced in Aug'16, Star cement listed in Jun'17)

Max Financial Services (76% in 30 Months)

scheme
Max India’s board approved the corporate restructuring plan of demerging the company into three companies, each of which will get listed once the demerger is complete.With this, Max Life, the company’s life insurance business in which Max India holds 72 per cent stake, will be the first life insurance company in the country to get listed as Max Financial Services (MFS).The second company, Max India, will have Max Healthcare, Max Bupa Health Insurance and Antara Senior Living. The third entity will be Max Ventures which will be the investment arm of Max Speciality Films. Demerger ratio is 1:1 for Max India and 1:5 for max Ventures

Timeline (18 Months)
Announcement: Jan'15
Scheme Record Date: Jan'16
Max Ventures Listing: Jun'16
Max India Listing: Jul'16

Profit (26%)
Max Fin market price on Announcement in Jan'15: Rs 450 per share
Max Fin  market price on Record Date in Jan'16: Rs 524 per share
Max Fin  market price adjusted for demerger in Jan'16: Rs 366 per share
Max India listing price in Jul'16: Rs 200 per share
Max Ventures listing price in Jun'16: Rs 45 per share

Investment 100 shares of Max Fin in Jan'15 = 100*450=45000
Value of Max Fin post demerger in Jan'16 = 100*366=36000
Value of Max India after listing in Jul'16 = 100*200=20000
Value of Max Ventures after listing in Jun'16 = 20*45=900

So you got Rs 56900 for investment of Rs 45000 = 26% profit in 18 Months. Most of the shares ran up substantially post the scheme. At the time of writing (Jun'17) Max Fin reached Rs 600 and Max India Rs 150 and Max Ventures at Rs 100 per share giving a return of 76% in 30 months


Transport Corporation Of India (46% in 14 months)

scheme
Transport Corporation of India Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on October 08, 2015, has approved the Scheme of Arrangement between Transport Corporation of India Limited (TCI) and its wholly owned subsidiary, TCI Express Ltd. for Demerger and Transfer of Express Distribution (XPS) . The Equity Shareholders of TCI shall receive 1 (one) Equity Shares of Rs. 2/- each of TCI Express Ltd. for every 2 (Two) Equity Shares of Rs. 2/- each held on the Record Date in the Company.
TCI was a holding company for several businesses and attracted a holding company discount into it's valuation trading at a P/E of close to 20's. However TCI Xpress that accounted for 30% of the total revenue and 37% of profit of whole TCI business deserved a much higher P/E when compared to peers like Blue Dart, Gati trading at a P/E of 40-80

Timeline (14 Months)
Announcement: Oct'15
Scheme Record Date: Aug'16
TCI Xpress Listing: Dec'16

Profit (46%)
TCI market price on Announcement in Oct'15: Rs 250 per share
TCI market price on Record Date in Aug'16: Rs 350 per share
TCI market price adjusted for demerger of TCI Xpress in Aug'16: Rs 190 per share
TCI Xpress listing price in Dec'16: Rs 350 per share

Investment 100 shares of TCI in Oct'15 = 100*250 = Rs 25000
Value of TCI post demerger in Aug'16 = 100*190 = Rs 19000
Value of TCI xpress on listing in Dec'16 = 50*350 = Rs 17500

So you got Rs 36500 for investment of Rs 25000 = 46% profit in 14 Months
TCI (Scheme Announced in Oct'15, TCI Xpress listed in Dec16)
At the time of writing (Jun'17) TCI reached Rs 300 and TCI Xpress at Rs 481 at return of 100% in 20 months

Sterlite Technologies (68% in 13 months)

scheme
Sterlite technologies announced demerger of the Power Products and Transmission Grid Business into  Sterlite Power Transmission Limited. Demerging the power business would give Sterlite Tech a pure play telecomm business with focus on OFSS segment. The scheme had two options for the shareholders
“01 (ONE) fully paid equity share of Rs. 2/- of Sterlite Power Transmission shall be issued and allotted for every 05 (FIVE) equity shares of Rs.2/- each held in Sterlite Technologies Ltd”
OR
“01 (ONE) fully paid redeemable preference share of Rs. 2/-  at a premium of Rs. 110.30/- per redeemable preference share of Sterlite Power Transmission Limited shall be issued and allotted for every 05 (FIVE) equity shares of Rs.2/-  each held in Sterlite Technologies Ltd”
The scheme was fairly complex to understand as there was no plan for listing of Sterlite Power Transmission in the immediate future.

Timeline (13 months)
Announcement: May'15
Scheme Record Date: Jun'16

Profit (68%)
Sterlite Tech market price on Announcement in May'15: Rs 70
Sterlite Tech market price on Record Date in Jun'16: Rs 96
Value of pref share in Jun'16: Rs 110

Investment 100 shares of Sterlite Tech in May'15: 100*70 = Rs 7000
Value of Sterlite Tech in Jun'16 = 100*96 = Rs 9600
Value of Pref shares in Jun'16 = 20*110 = Rs 2200

So you got Rs 11800 for investment of Rs 7000 = 68% profit in 13 Months

At the time of this writing (Jun'17) Sterlite tech is trading at Rs 153 per share giving a return of 107% in 24 Months

Crompton Greaves (100% in 30 months)

scheme
Crompton Greaves announced a scheme to demerge it's power & industrial business and the consumer product business into separate entities. The parent group had run into trouble with excessive debt and wanted to hive off CG consumer product business which some PE players were interested in. The demerger ratio was initially 3:4 but after investor objection it was revised to 1:1. This also lead to substantial delays in the implementation of the scheme

Timeline (19 Months)
Initial Scheme Announcement: Oct'14
Revised Scheme Announcement: Feb'15
Scheme Record Date: Mar'16
CG Electricals Listing: May'16

Profit (2%)
CG market price on Announcement in Feb'15: Rs 180 per share
CG market price on Record Date in Mar'16: Rs 146 per share
CG market price adjusted for demerger of CG Electricals in Mar'16: Rs 46 per share
CG Electricals  listing price in May'16: Rs 126 per share

Investment 100 shares of CG in Feb'15 = 100*146 = Rs 14600
Value of CG post demerger in Mar'16 = 100*46 = Rs 4600
Value of CG Electricals on listing in May'16 = 100*130 = Rs 13000

So you got Rs 17600 for investment of Rs 14600 = 2% profit in 19 Months. However after listing CG ran upto Rs 80 per share and CG electricals upto Rs 220 per share giving Rs 30000 for 14600 invested. Almost 100% return. In another 1 year from the demerger.


Greenply Industries (178% in 11 months)

scheme 
Greenply decided to demerge it's laminates business from the plywood business in the ratio of 1:1 with the following rationale, "the nature of technology, risk, competition in each of the undertaking of Greenply is distinct from each other hence it is considered desirable to demerge its laminating business to Greenlam Industries"

Timeline (11 Months)
Announcement: ~May'14
Scheme Record Date: Nov'14
Greenlam Listing: Mar'15

Profit (178%)
Greenply market price on Announcement in May'14: Rs 500 per share
Greenply market price on Record Date in Nov'14 : Rs 1110 per share
Greenply market price adjusted for demerger of Greenlam in Nov'14: Rs 940 per share
Greenlam listing price in Mar'15: Rs 450 per share

Investment 100 shares of Greenply in May'14 = 100*500 = Rs 50000
Value of Greenply post demerger in Nov'14 = 100*940 = Rs 94000
Value of Greenlam on listing in Mar'15 = 100*450 = Rs 45000

So you got Rs 139000 for investment of Rs 50000 = 178% profit in 11 Months

At the time of this writing (Jun'17)  Greenply is trading at Rs 283*5 (split 1:5) per share and Greenlam at Rs 800 per share = 343% return in 3 years

Sunday, June 11, 2017

commonly misunderstood

Do I make posts that are intended to manipulate people/friends for personal gains?
No, I don't. I share concepts & ideas and not stock tips

Do I manipulate my friends and groups for personal gains?
No, I have offered time & advice free to several friends to help them plan their financial future better and free them from unnecessary financial stress which most people grow with especially in a struggling country like India. I have a particular hatred towards such unwanted stress in life. Financial future planning is something you have to start early and you can save lot of pitfalls from the experience of someone like me who has probably fallen and risen from almost every pit. I consider it a disease that dwarfs our growth potential as a country, because people are busy with basics and risk averse and are usually brought up in financially conservative family background. Until now no-one has come back saying that I ruined their life. Mostly I have received good feedback which is satisfying.

I don't see anyone thanking you
These things mostly happen on personal messages and not on public walls

What do I gain from this?
Nothing, I believe stock market is a place of abundance and there is enough for everyone so there is no need to compete. I learned investing the hard way through lot of painful mistakes but had the opportunity to correct myself by following legends like Buffet, Damani, Kedia, Ramdeo and many others. So in a way I am contributing back.

Do I support political parties and personalities that would benefit me in the stock market?
No, I support political parties and personalities that I believe are pro growth & welfare oriented and that would lead to growth in stock market as a side effect.

Why do I regularly post against few politicians?
Because I believe they have harmed the world beyond repair by funding, supporting & breeding terrorist groups that have spread like plague around the world which I consider will be a major threat in the future and especially for the future generations.  I think I have the right to vent my anger at these assholes. I don't care if they are male or female or straight or gay or transgender or religious or atheist or alien or whatever. I give more weightage to results and outcomes instead of people behind it.

What do you feel about public opinion about you?
Being misunderstood is not always bad, on the contrary.. :P


What is the basis of my belief?
I read. I read several hours everyday. Over the years I have tens of thousands of reading hours. I usually make sure that I follow credible sources of information that are fact based, on the ground reports, direct interviews, research documentaries, real time information, whistle blowers, regulatory filings, legal proceedings, etc I collect information from several sources and am capable of tracking and correlating large amounts of information over long periods of time, decades. From Ramalinga Raju to alleged chemical weapons use in Syria, I follow everything all the time and endlessly. My beliefs are based on these and it keeps evolving with time.

You could still go wrong?
Yes, I verify my theories from the market.

Am I profit driven?
What the heck? Again ! No, I practice minimalism. I use and need very small amount of money to survive & be happy. I am a truth seeker and passionate about it. Markets as a whole also tends to converge towards truth inspite of all the rumors and manipulative elements who are very active in the market. Being a truth seeker helps me align with the market on the right side. 

Can I trust you?
No, I don't want anyone to trust me. I don't like dependencies & dependents. I can teach you how to fish. I cannot guarantee you a fish everyday. So you don't need to trust me. At best, if at all interested you can take pointers from me (available free) and do your own research be it politics or economics, whatever is your area of interest.

Do I have any kind of biases?
yes, I am allergic to bullshit & hypocrisy

I don't like your posts, why can't I criticize?
You are most welcome to criticize my posts and me. Only request is that you must make it constructive and factual and not arbitrary and damaging, which is also fine. It's just that if you do such a thing, I will write one more blog and post it :)