Don't pounce on dead cat bounce

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As the stock market reverses trend from positive to negative, let's look at one of the biggest trap during the bear cycle in the market.

trend reversals
After long and continuous bull phase markets become overbought, expensive and enter a bubble phase and for one reason or another has to correct to get rid of the excesses. After all underlying business does not grow on a daily basis but the market can run up daily leading to divergence between fundamentals and market value. So once the market reaches the tipping point it reverses trend and starts falling instead of rising.

dead cat bounce
As markets fall sharply they pause in between and give minor bounce backs periodically just like they correct periodically with minor falls during a sharp rise. This is known as dead cat bounce. It means market is like a falling dead cat that bounces after hitting the ground but is nonetheless still dead. When first wave of sell-off is over market bounces a bit as it hits technical support levels and then resumes it's fall again. Instead of falling straight from top to bottom, it is more like a dead cat falling through the stairs and bouncing everytime it hits the floor of the stairs at each step. So whenever there is a trend reversal followed by a sharp fall, expect a series of similar pattern to occur post the major event.

the bounce trap
Novice investors look at this bounce and think that the fall in the stock market is over and now it will start rising again like it was doing before the fall started. So they pounce on the first bounce back thinking that they are getting the stocks much cheaper compared to the recent highs. What actually happens is that the bears are just taking a break and the technical bulls are just trying to play for small gains from a bounce at the support levels. This bounce sucks in many new and inexperienced investors, as bulls and bears play their game in the market. The bounce back actually gives a slightly better price for the bears to start the next wave of shorting. Simply put the bounce back gives the market more momentum for the next fall. This pattern continues till the market reaches the bottom of the stairs and gets so cheap that the battered fundamental bulls can buy huge volumes of stocks with very little investment i.e the stocks have become ridiculously cheap. One example in such cases could be stocks offering better dividend yields than fixed deposit interest rate. This helps the bulls make a fully charged comeback and reverse the trend from negative to positive again.
Also note that initially as the trend changes to negative many bulls get stuck and run out of cash. It takes some time for them to recover from shock & surprise and arrange for enough ammunition to fight back the selling pressure from the bears. So after a major event almost certainly you should not expect an immediate reversal within a few days. It takes some time. Any rally immediately after major falls is most likely a counter trend pull back that is not guaranteed to last. It will take multiple waves of similar events and enough consolidation time for the larger trend to reverse again.

lessons from the bouncy cat
The main goal of the article is to help you understand the risks and the pitfalls that lie in the small counter-trend rallies within a major trend. You should be skilled enough to recognize these and not get sucked in by it. Let the dead cat fall, bounce, fly, do whatever it likes, don't pounce on it, just focus on the larger trend & fundamentals.

how to invest in gold

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This blog does not recommend using any of the investment techniques or specific stocks mentioned. The goal is just to explore different options through examples.

Physical Gold 
Go to reputed jewelry shops and buy gold bars, biscuits, coins or jewelry. This will come with lot of maintenance overhead but will make the women in your family happy besides providing the most guaranteed investment in gold. On the flip side there are risks of robbery and higher costs of acquisition as well as depreciated value while converting back to cash in the name of various charges added by the retailer.

Gold ETFs
You can buy reputed gold ETF's online. These are liquid instruments and easily tradeable but not guaranteed to be backed by physical gold. In extreme situations the ETF provider can default making it less guaranteed instrument than physical gold. However the risk lies in only very extreme situations

Gold Bonds
These are floated by the government and select financial institutions and banks and are certificates that you can purchase instead of buying physical gold. These are government backed and hence carry extra guarantee and safety. It can be still less guaranteed than physical gold in case of government defaults

Commodity Trading Accounts
Through commodity trading accounts you can take long positions in gold. In India you can do it through MCX. Note that commodity exchange is expected to guarantee your contracts with underlying physical asset. However these are not regulated very strictly and there are chances of default both from the counter party as well as the exchange.

Gold loan companies
These are companies that offer loan against gold pledged to them. Usually they build large reserves of gold holding in this business. While they do not benefit directly from the price of gold they do benefit indirectly from high value transactions and low defaults in case of rising gold prices. Also note that they do collect good amount of gold reserves from loan defaulters. Some companies in Indian stock exchange include Muthoot & Manappuram finance

Gold mining companies
Companies with gold mining lease who can benefit significantly from rise in gold rices as the value of their asset will increase proportionately. In India there is only one listed entity in this space i.e Deccan gold mines, however it is yet to start commercial production. Internationally you will find many more high quality companies. However make sure that they are gold focused and not heavily diversified else all the gains in gold assets will get drained in other non-precious mining assets that are in a severe bear phase at present.

Gold dealing companies
Trying to play with gold jewelers can be a risky bet since their situation will depend on how they manage their inventories and how transparent, ethical and shareholder friendly they are. Since rising gold prices will attract more retail buying, efficiently managed companies might benefit like Titan. However real benefit will come for companies who have complete backward and forward integration like Rajesh exports. There could be some underdogs like Shirpur Gold refinery but they are yet to prove themselves as serious and shareholder friendly business house.

Why Gold?
In the current situation paper assets like stocks, currencies, bonds, lack any fundamentals or are highly overvalued and are manipulated by central banks and governments. This asset class has already entered a highly volatile and high risk phase. There can be a steady outflow from these assets to assets with hard fundamentals like gold & silver. Due to turmoil in the world markets and commodity space there is a high chance that many currencies and bonds will be discarded as junk as the countries backing them face high default risks. With geopolitical tensions rising around the world there can be a major flight from high risk assets to safe heaven assets that includes gold. Along with geopolitical risks currently many countries face a very high probability of a civil war like situation internally. Gold is currently available at near production costs and there could be a cyclical uptrend in this precious metal commodity space. Many institutions might increase their gold exposure as a hedge to the rest of their portfolio. Weak economic recovery can lead to continued lower US fed rates and QE in many other countries however appetite for risky assets is decreasing steadily as traders have already started making huge losses due to high volatility. In such a situation any extra cash positions will be used for instruments like gold instead of any other high risk investments. I am hearing lot of noise on gold from lot of influential names. That is a good indication of something big coming up.

Overall at present gold makes sense and you can use a combination of above discussed alternatives to increase your holding in gold.

Is it urgent?
Nothing is ever urgent. Investment is a game for slow, steady and patient players only

stock market bubble

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How to identify stock market bubble
There are many signs that keep on repeating in every stock market bubble which can offer early warning signals to investors with high stakes. Let's look at a few here

String of successful IPOs
Lot's of IPO offers. Read lot of groups realizing that they can get premium valuation in the current market and hence lining up for listing on the exchanges. High premium earned easily means bubble. This becomes very evident as even low quality company IPO's gets oversubscribed at premium valuations and the lineup of IPO's starts increasing at an accelerated pace. This signifies that there is a hurry to raise money from the market before the opportunity goes away, since the next such opportunity will come back again only after a really long time.

small/midcaps preference over large caps
preference of small and midcap stocks over large caps signals shift of focus from safe & steady to quick & risky among investors. Just like IPO's this is fine upto some extent as long as high quality midcaps with good potential are running up, but when low quality mid & smallcaps and unheard names (penny & paper companies) start hitting upper circuits everyday you are definitely in a bubble phase

High Volatility
Significant run up on mildest of good news and complete crash on a hint of bad news points to the same money being rotated to capture as many opportunities as possible. This is also called hot money. High volatility indicates a higher percentage of hot money floating in the market instead of stable long term investments. Hot money is usually used for trading and is leveraged multifolds to amplify the effect. This kind of money will exit the market on the first sign of trouble at any available market price, leaving the stable investors high & dry specifically if invested at higher levels pumped by hot money.

Retail participation:
Retail is just a nice word for unwise or inexperienced people in stock markets. They do not take their own investment decisions but rely on tips and advise from others. Also they are hard to convince and slow to act because they have little knowledge about the working of the stock market and hence remain skeptical for most of the time. So when they finally decide to act, they are almost certainly the last one's to act which also means when the retail starts to act it signifies the beginning of the end of the current cycle. If they start to buy in big numbers, it marks the beginning of the end of the bull cycle and if they start to sell in big numbers, it marks the beginning of the end of the bear cycle. This is also because retail trades only on greed on the buy side and fear on the sell side. Interestingly high volatility attracts more retail participation because they like spectacular and fast moves. 20% in one day attracts retail attention but 2% for 10 trading sessions is boring for retail. This is also one of the reason why retail investors enter the stock market in the last phase of the bull run i.e when it gets more volatile, makes more news and attracts more attention.

Ignoring bad news & deteriorating macros 
Bad monsoon, lower job and wage growth, high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, terror attacks, business frauds, corporate governance issues and corruption, unstable political environment, growing NPA's in banking system, lot of corporate defaults, institutions/states/countries going bankrupt ... no problem stock market always goes up. When you feel that way, you know it's a bubble. In other words it is also called euphoria. Market always sees good even in bad news. Fed decided not to raise rates because of poor job growth is regarded as great news because that means cheaper credit to invest in risky assets but is actually bad news that the economic recovery is not happening inspite of all the efforts put in but market takes it as a good news.

Hectic market activity
Lot of analysts and stock gurus showing up everyday with new multibagger ideas daily, lot of investment blogs :) , lot of M&A and fund raising activities at insane valuations, lot of new startups, lot of media coverage, lot of demat & brokerage accounts getting opened, lot of talk of HNI's and investment agents, people claiming to have bought cars and house out of money earned from stock market and suggesting the same to others, lot of leveraging, loan taking and financial transactions. Basically very high money velocity in the market. Lower almost recessionary value for hard physical assets like gold, silver and real estate.

Insider selling
Lot of promoters selling or diluting their stake in the company they are running and raising money either through institutions or through open market. You might also see huge exits from large institutions or long term funds. However the entire selling gets absorbed by the market because of the retail euphoria who are ready to pick up stocks at any price.

Technicals
there are several ways to identify cycles using advanced technicals like elliot waves however for the layman the easiest way to identify bubble is to look at one year graph of many stocks and indices and check for exponential or spike patterns towards the later end in most of the graphs. This simple pattern is on the way up but if the trend has already reversed look for lower lows or look for sharp high volume falls followed by sluggish low volume recoveries. You can also look at technical ratios like stock and sector P/E. In the Indian context 15 and below is investment worthy and 30 and above is bubble formation.

Warnings from stock market veterans
Highly experienced and successful stock market veterans detect bubbles much earlier than retail & media and give out very soft warnings for two reasons, one they are in the process of positioning themselves for the coming bust and don't want to spread panic, second they know that they detect the bubble earlier so there is still some time for the market to run up during which things could change so no point in making hard predictions. So they give out very subtle warnings.

Remember everytime things are slightly different so stock market analysis should be done correlating or using a combination of multiple factors and keeping in mind the broader macros and current context along with future projections.

value and growth trap

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The value trap
One day you decided that you will find your own multibagger stock instead of taking tips from bloggers like this one :). You did your study on how to identify value investment based on earnings, stock P/E, sector P/E, peer comparison, dividend policy, quality management, quality products and several other parameters. Then you went through thousands of listed stock to identify the one that stands true on all these parameters and still offers great value. After lot of hard work and time finally you found "The One" great stock available at great bargain price. This is it ! this is going to be your discovery, your find, your gateway to success. You account for all the money you can invest and then pick up a huge stake in this gem discovered by you but hidden from the market. Now all you have to do is wait. Wait for the market to realize that they have missed this great gem all along until you discovered it, that it is grossly mis-priced and needs to be re-rated to much higher multiples than what it currently enjoys. After few weeks the stock is still trading in the same price range. Maybe it will take some time. Anyways you do your part of the deal by advocating the stock and its virtues on all possible message boards and stock forums hoping others will also join you in this great journey. After few months the stock is still trading in the same price range. Maybe it will take some more time. All you need to do is wait patiently, after all you are a "long term" value investor.  After few years the stock is still trading in the same price range. And now you have lost all your patience. How can this be? This was the perfect find. Nothing wrong with it and yet it refuses to reward you even after being so patient with it. In-fact it has destroyed your wealth. In so many years money would have doubled even in fixed deposit, and here it is still the same in this stock. What is happening?

My friend, you are a victim of value trap. Yes it is a rare case, but remember .. you went looking for it .. a rare discovery :) You went through thousands of stock to find that one stock that wouldn't grow in price inspite of great fundamentals and that is exactly what you got! Only difference is that now even you are stuck in it. 

S*** happens

Value trap is often seen in cases where company management is not dynamic. They are doing the same thing for years and fortunately have retained the same revenue, market share and profits for years. Whatever they earn, they pay it out as dividend and they lack a desire to grow the company beyond its current capacity and capabilities. They are happy and content with what they have. Consider a local grocery store. The owners of this store have setup a small shop selling groceries and they know that this shop is going to take good care of their family for their lifetime and they don't need to do anything more in life now. They just need to keep this shop running and are happy and content with it. Now think about similar listed businesses, these are your classic value trap stories. Once you get trapped in such investments the only thing you can do is wait endlessly or get out and relieve yourself from this stagnancy. If you keep thinking that it is underpriced and market will one day discover it, your wait is never going to be over. Market pays premium for possibilities and discounts what is well known. Everything about this business is known so the market will not show any interest in it. It is paying some dividend and has some known value so it will settle down at some price and will always be in the same range just like the business it is running. In-fact market is discounting the fact that  eventually one day this business will become obsolete and wind up since anything that is not growing is ultimately dead. You see, market is very wise and always thinks forward. If you are in the stock market, you are here for growth and not stability so you need to avoid such traps or atleast get out once you realize it. And that brings us to the second investing trap "the growth trap"

The growth trap

Unlike value trap, you don't need to go hunting for a growth trap. The growth trap hunts for you. Unlike value trap these are not undiscovered but over-discovered or marketed stocks through punters, promoters and manipulators. So what is a growth trap? Here you get a stock that is just flying away. The only way to grab it is to chase it. There are great things being talked about the stock everyday, there are great announcements being made, new orders, new ventures, new products, new markets, great results, great future projections, all good all around. You are completely convinced of the growth potential in this stock after reading so many news and articles about it and it's future plans. After waiting for some time for the stock price to correct to reasonable levels, you realize that the stock is just zooming away and there is no way you are going to get it at lower values. Enough, you finally decide to stop waiting and take the plunge at whatever price market offers it to you. This is a one way rocket stock and no point waiting for it to come back to the station, just jump on it. Congratulations you are now on-board the rocket. Now you are feeling relaxed, no more waiting on the side hearing from everyone how they have doubled, tripled their money in this counter and soon it is going to multiply several times more. Now you are also part of this winning group and you will let the rocket take you to new heights, so you close your eyes to rest a bit. After all it has been a tough journey to get on this rocket. When you open your eyes you realize that the rocket is nosediving .. faster than it went up. Much of your investments have already evaporated like jet fuel. Welcome to the growth trap and yes your investment was used to fuel the rocket in the final round before nosediving. All the great things about the stock suddenly disappeared. Suddenly the business environment is tough and it will take few years to recover. While you are still recovering with the shock trying to figure out what just happened, some days later you hear in the news how a big/marquee investor sold all his holding at the top and got out of this stock aka rocket. 

S*** happens!

Self explanatory :) Happy new year, don't fall into a trap .. say cheese !

mission statement

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This is my last blog for the current year 2015. I started blogging this year about my thoughts on financial wisdom and management for everyone. I started with retirement planning, how you can plan your life such that you never have to worry about retirement. My main objective was to take the financial worries and fear out of your life which I think is completely unnecessary and still so many of us suffer with it throughout our life. I personally suffered financial worries for the initial part of my life and hence it is a matter close to my heart. I want to cure and eradicate this disease completely to the extent possible for me.

Beyond financial worries & wisdom
In my search for financial wisdom, I got much more than what I was looking for and that is what I would like to discuss today. What can be better than a life free of financial worries? Well .. a life with a purpose and a personal mission statement.

How?
Try out a small experiment. Assume that you have completed everything in life that you need to do. All your responsibilities have been taken care of. Family, kids, parents, relatives, friends, loans, everything has been taken care of. Assume that everything you wanted to achieve has been achieved by you. You wanted to buy a car, house, become the CEO of your company, accumulate wealth, become famous, learn something ... everything has been achieved by you. Assume that all your desires have been fulfilled. You wanted to marry your love, visit some place, take a long vacation, do scuba diving, take a trip in outer space, buy a fancy art ... all of your desires have been fulfilled. Assume that all your problems have been solved. Bad relationship, health issues, day to day chores, pending work ... all your problems have been solved completely and permanently. There are no more problems in your life now.
Now close your eyes, relax for a moment, clear your thoughts, look deep into yourself and ask yourself this simple question "What do you really want?" Now that you have nothing to worry about, what do you really want?
Think ...you have a long life ahead of you, there are no worries in your life, all your responsibilities have been taken care of, everything you wanted to achieve for yourself and others has been achieved. Now what do you want to do with all this time in life that you have in your hand?

Think .. keep on thinking
Think about it, keep on thinking. If anything comes in your mind that falls into the above category of worries, assume it has been solved. Think more. If what comes to your mind is a responsibility, assume it has been taken care of. Think more. If what comes to your mind is something you wanted to do or achieve and haven't done yet, assume it's done and already achieved. Think more. If it is an unfulfilled desire that comes to your mind, assume that it has been fulfilled and keep on thinking about what do you really want? Don't worry about possibilities and probabilities. Assume everything is possible and assume luck is always on your side, now think what do you really want?

Seek and don't give up
Friends, seek this answer because once you find the answer to this question, it will become your mission statement for life. It will be that something which if you accomplish, will take you to a state of complete satisfaction. On your last day as a living entity, it will give you complete satisfaction about the life you have lived. It will be the purpose of your life. What you were born to do and not what you were forced to do. Think about it, keep on thinking friends until you get this answer. Think about it whenever you get time. Think about it as often as possible until you get the answer.

My Experience
It took me about 7 years to get this answer. It also took me several personal failures and a few minor victories to get this answer. It took me a long time of complete existential crisis to get this answer. It made me completely restless and think continuously about what am I doing in life, why am I even alive at all? And finally I got it and I reached that state of personal satisfaction knowing that the rest of my life will go in this journey that I was born to take.
The most important part of the above discovery were those few minor victories that gave me the confidence that I could achieve my goal in this life, my mission statement. As far as I can remember, I have always been happy, satisfied and worry free irrespective of all the day to day odds and evens in life, ever since. I could be superficially sad or angry on some days but deep inside I am always happy and satisfied.

Mission Statement
Once you have discovered the purpose of your life, come up with a mission statement. A statement that defines exactly what you felt when you first discovered the purpose of your life and then write it down and always hold on to your mission statement. Keep it close to yourself, keep it a secret. It is your personal mission statement. It is between you and your life. You don't need confirmation or appreciation from anyone else on this. It is a very personal matter. Guard it very closely. Friends your mission statement cannot be anything small or trivial or something that can be achieved immediately. It has to be something great. Something that will last and be with you, your entire life. Something that will give you complete satisfaction about the life you are living and have lived. Your mission statement cannot be about your family and kids. It is about you, just you. Friends, stop living for others in the self-sacrificial sense, stop living for short term gratifications, stop living with worries, stop struggling for trivial achievements, discover yourself and live a full and happy life!

What's wrong with an ordinary life? 
Nothing, except that it's ordinary whereas each of you were meant for something great. 

the truth is out there

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The truth is out there but very difficult to find. In this age of information unfortunately the virus of lies and propaganda has taken the dominant position. Truth is rarely spicy and exciting and remains silently buried. On the other hand, lies can be made as spicy and exciting as desired by the presenter and spreads fast in the world of headline news, micro tweets and picture posts where convenience and time takes priority over facts. Truth unfortunately lies in the details and not at the surface and is difficult to dig from the heap of lies, is time consuming and almost never convenient or entertaining. However success can be achieved only if you can achieve truth. Success cannot be achieved based on lies and false information.

Role of news media
Today conventional media is full of lies and propaganda. Presented by average Joe and sexy Jane they feed you with nothing but lies. The news presenters and the entire machinery behind them is doing it for name, fame, money, air time, ad revenues and top slot competition for which they want exciting stuff. True or false, accurate or inaccurate doesn't matter to them. Immediately this might sound as an extreme statement but as you start exploring the facts, you will realize that this is true.

Where is the truth
How do we find truth? First get rid the conventional media. If not intentionally feeding you with lies conventional media is full of reporters with less than average IQ and low ethics who present their opinions and interpretations and not the facts. You want the facts go for non-conventional sources of information. Go to documentaries and presentations by subject matter experts, scientists, researchers and hands on the ground workers. Listen to their interviews, chat shows, listen to their speeches. Take the information directly from the source and that is the only source of truth. If someone is presenting you information and that someone is not the original source of information itself he has most likely messed up the information already and whatever he is presenting to you will lack the essence or will be complete junk. Ironically some countries are proud that they provide complete freedom of speech but it is useless since there is no freedom of facts.

What is news media good for then?
News media is ok to follow when you are following a mechanical news, hard numbers, example Company X reported the following results for this quarter but don't take their opinion on whether the result is good or bad. Listen to the company promoter or research analyst for it. Similarly news is ok to follow if they say rocket xyz was launched successfully or crashed after take off but not if they are giving the reasons behind it. You really want to know why the rocket crashed or got launched successfully, then only listen to the rocket scientist and not to the average Joe or sexy Jane presenting the news. Some journalist and news presenters are good, unfortunately very few, very very very few. Follow them closely once you have built a trust with them. It is ok to rely on them for information. The point is before taking a piece of information first focus on who is presenting it, If the presenter is an idiot then what he is presenting is surely garbage. If the presenter is not the direct source then what he is presenting is either intentionally manipulated or unintentionally inaccurate. If it is directly from the source then it is likely to be genuine. If it can be confirmed from multiple sources then you probably have what is closest to the truth. There are some areas where there is very high degree of manipulation, politics, finance and healthcare are some examples.

How to do it?
Fortunately it is not that difficult now a days. Follow the genuine sources and experts on twitter. There are lot of you tube channels that bring you information directly from the source without having a news presenter or a news broker in between. Follow documentaries, interviews and chat shows instead of news channels. Learn to verify the authenticity of any news by correlating the presented numbers and information and confirming it from multiple sources. Similarly learn to identify lies by looking for contradictions and anomalies. Spend time. You want to get to the truth then spend time trying to get the details on the subject. Don't form an opinion based on  biased information sources, headlines, sarcastic/funny one liners and picture posts. Look for details. Spend time if it needs time.

How it helps?
 It helps your mind in the same way healthy nutritious food helps your body over poisonous and addictive junk food. I follow news around the world very closely to keep track of my investments and I have learnt it the hard way. News presenters are either too stupid to present the pure truth or are intentionally manipulating the information for various reasons. Don't follow or believe them blindly, build your own sources of credible, intellectual and genuine channels of information and follow them. Detoxify yourself from lies of the world. Once you know how to get to the truth, success in life will be easy in whatever field you are working. So it helps in becoming successful and getting a clear picture of what is happening.

I always knew I was going to be rich

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'I always knew I was going to be rich. I don't think I ever doubted it for a minute'
                                                                                                    ---- Warren Buffett

Those are the famous words by one of the greatest legends ever in the world of investments and fund management. Most of us spend our life worrying about money. I have many friends & relatives who are coming close to retirement and they worry so much if they are going to have enough once they have to let go of their job and monthly income. And here we have someone who always knew that he was going to be rich, even before he became rich, much much before retirement, infact closer to his childhood years.
Warren Buffet today is one of the richest man on earth almost as far ahead of the second category of rich people as pluto from earth. Warren is so rich that he had to hire Bill & Melinda Gates to just donate all or most of his money away for charity and they happily accepted the responsibility with great pride. Warren also made several others filthy rich, friends, families, early contributors and a long list of loyal followers & investors. They are all millionaires.

It should be then interesting to figure out how Warren always knew that he would be so rich and successful in life way before he even achieved it. Who else can you think of had so much confidence? Edison, Newton never said that they always knew that they will be the greatest scientist, Steve Jobs never said that he always knew that he will be the greatest technologist, Gandhi never said that he always knew that he will the greatest peace messenger, you never say that we will be greatest parent ever. Then what gave Warren Buffet the confidence to say this?

The answer is simple 
Simple compounding mathematics. Warren knew he had P amount in present (which is not rich) but he can compound it at 15-25% per annum forever from here by investing it. And using a simple formula he could easily see how much he will have as he keeps compounding his P year after year which would become F i.e Future value which after elapsed time t makes him super rich. He knew it and it worked out exactly how he knew it (few things here and there).
If you play around a little with this simple formula using different combinations of P and n, you will be amazed to see how it can transform some very small and humble number in present (P) to some really magnanimous number in future (F) given sufficient time (n)

Compounding formula from wiki

 

I am a Warren Buffet fan!

Of all the many reasons, this is exactly why I became a fan of Warren Buffet. It is one thing to celebrate success for one day after slogging for years like the Edisons and Newtons and Steves of the world and It is a completely different thing to always know that you will be successful and make success a part of life instead of one moment or one event thing. This is where Warren Buffet is far ahead of everyone. He has a successful life and not a successful day or event to his credit. Life is all about inspiration and not material success and Warren Buffet inspires me the most. 

Just look at him, he surely knew everything all along. That's the happiness on his face. So who is the one that inspires you in life? Do you also know if you are going to be rich or successful? trust me it is a good life to know in advance :)