TrumpHill

Disclaimer:
I don't support Trump or Hillary, one vs another, either or both or in any other possible way. Fortunately for us we don't have to vote in this devil vs witch election. Having said that all countries go through such phases of political bankruptcy at some point or the other. Not long back India was practically ashamed by the leaders representing the country. So I am not trying to mock anyone or any country, just trying a neutral analysis on possible impact of this event on stock market and us stock market participants.

Trump Vs Hillary
This election could definitely be a market moving event, considering the two candidates represent completely opposite and extreme views on absolutely everything. To a large extent broadly speaking Hillary represents continuation and she will mostly be like female version of Obama (except maybe not as smart) who will drag the same for another 4 years. If she wins Obama fans will not miss much. Trump on the other hand represents anti-establishment. He will mostly try to change and do everything differently if not in exactly the opposite or anti current practices way.  I won't go into major "If I win I will do this" list of both candidates, because most of it is meaningless and neither will keep any of their promises which are just made to generate more and more media buzz.

Why we (stock market players) should worry?
Trump has openly made many statements in the media that he believes that stock markets are in bubble territory, he has exited most of the investments and markets will crash and people who are invested into the market will loose lot of money. refer

Bubble or not someone like Trump can certainly cause a burst. His ideas about NATO, Mexico, international trade, off-shoring, etc is all very radical. US is the mother market and a big import/export destination for the rest of the world. So any disruption in US policies can lead to huge disruption in stock markets around the world.

Hillary like I said represents continuation, she will most likely be best friends with Yellen, continue to print and distribute money to the rich, elite and advantaged class as well as throw some in charity on the working class so that she has something to say in her speeches. In short she will be a blessing for stock market and stock market participants and her winning the elections could very well trigger a huge run up everywhere in the world.

Geopolitics and Wars

This is another area where the two differ very strongly. Hillary again being a continuation of her predecessor will keep all the wars in third world countries alive and dragging for another 4 years with no solution or end to it. After all America is a major beneficiary. Hillary also has a big role in some of these like Libya and she has made her line of thinking very clear. (Something that makes me feel nauseated about her). I think Hillary will further strain America's relationship with Russia & China and also cause more chronic pain & suffering to the war & terrorism impacted countries. 

Trump again has a different view on this. Trump could very well be more co-operative in this matter with Russia which according to me is the more optimistic case for the war impacted countries. Maybe not a popular opinion but I think the middle east problem is basically just a proxy war between US & Russia and can be solved only if these two countries shake hands (which Obama is unwilling to do and same will be the case with Hillary) Trump might just go and hug Putin which can change lot of things in the world. However Trump can negatively impact US relations with NATO and EU and other allies like Japan, etc. I am not very sure about his views on the South China Sea issue though.

Who wins?

Considering the two candidates represent completely opposite point of views and both have extremely biased followers, one set of people believe that only Hillary will win and other set believe that only Trump will win. Like someone said, this time support for a particular candidate comes more from hatred for the other candidate. But many conventional news and media channels (establishment worshipers) have a very biased view that Trump has no chance in hell. I think that will not be the case. I did some quick analysis here which off-course is meaningless & useless but just for fun and might provide some good insights after the election results are declared for future. Let's start with twitter

Tweet Tweet:
At the time of writing this Trump had 11.6 million followers compared to 8.8 million followers for Hillary. It is also interesting to note that Trump only follows 42 compared to 752 for Hillary. What Hillary follows is mostly diversified interest in politics, NGO's and people whereas Trump mostly follows other Trumps and different businesses run by the Trump families

Trump is way more active on twitter with 33K plus tweet whereas Hillary is struggling to reach even 10K (not surprising since during the email scandal days many said that she was quiet challenged when handling IT which was also used as a defense in the whole episode)

Not accurate or exhaustive but just running through the tweets from both, Trump clearly generates much more engagement, likes and retweets. Below is a snapshot of the two bashing up each other. Trump getting likes in tens of thousands and Hillary in few thousands. I wish I had access to the analytics page for both the candidates, but I don't :(

Google Trends
Google Trends also show a clear victory for Trump in terms of interest. Hillary showed a minor and temporary bump after she collapsed at the 9/11 memorial ceremony (maybe the ghost of Libya wars came to haunt her that day). However Trump clearly wins here hands down and consistently throughout.

US region specific Google Trends

Polls
Polls predict a solid victory for Hillary by a good margin. refer

Betting markets
Betting market also show a good lead for Hillary which is where real money is at stake compared to polls which is just free opinion stats (just be cautious they showed a similaR lead for Breremain over Brexit)

So is it Hillary?

Not sure. Twitter shows more excitement for Trump and Poll for Hillary. I think Trump is much more well networked. He is involved in several businesses which employ several people who have several friends and families and are hence connected to Trump in some way. This explains his popularity on social media over Hillary. At one point of time I would have said that Trump generates more controversies but that is not true anymore, Hillary is probably just a step behind. So Even if the polls don't suggest so I think the election will be a close one and while Hillary win is a consensus opinion, Trump does have a fighting chance. We will know only in November. 

If heavily invested in Stock markets. do I need to be prepared for this event?

Oh hell ya

How?

I don't know :)