Sometimes your biggest victory turns into your biggest defeat and these are the one's you need to be really careful about. The best example comes from the game of poker. In poker you win a hand based on the combination of cards you have like a pair, or 2 pairs, or 3 of a kind or 4 of a kind. One of the top winning combination is called straight flush where you have 5 cards in a sequence like 5-6-7-8-9. What are the chances of getting that? Extremely rare and hence "if" you get it, you must play it with all you have as the chances of you winning the hand is extremely high by virtue of it being extremely rare .. except ... if one of the other guys has a straight flush with a higher sequence like 10-J-Q-K-A ... now what are the chances of that happening ? ... EXTREMELY RARE.. and yet "if" it happens, you loose big time exactly when you had one of the best chances of winning the game. Your luckiest chance becomes your biggest curse, just like that.
This is exactly what happened to me with Brexit. I was following up on Brexit from much before anyone had even heard of that term. Two weeks before the poll, market was full of buzz that Brexit won't win and the market will run up on that. Market had already started pricing it in by running up ahead of the event. Betting market was in favor of Brexit not passing, stock market was running up in anticipation of the same. Top politicians, businessmen, celebrities made very public anti-Brexit speeches. However I was on the other side. My gut feeling was Brexit has a good chance of happening because I had a pulse on the deteriorating economic condition, anti-migrant uprising, and general anti-establishment feeling rising generally in the European countries and the risk was too high for me. A possibility of full blown EU disintegration crisis. So I positioned myself by converting a good chunk of my equity investments into cash.
How I got royally flushed?
And I got my straight flush ! Brexit wins. I got it right when the biggest, wisest, and the strongest got it wrong ! My moment of fame and glory !!! Unfortunately that lasted only for a moment.
In just two days market recovered and then zoomed past the pre-brexit highs. FUCK ! I sat through it in denial. Brexit is a catastrophic event. Market has to crash, but markets started breaking into new highs. FUCK ! In my defense, this was not a move based on fundamentals. It was thanks to the money printing policy adopted by central banks around the world. US decided not to rate hike, BOE was expected to cut rate and ECB to pump $250 billion into the markets to handle Brexit shock. And that was the royal flush thrown at me by the markets. FUCK ! FUCK ! FUCK !!!
What is money printing policy?
A new age policy to solve every problem by printing free money. Poor economic conditions .. print money, political uprising .. print money, bomb blast ... print money, civil unrest .. print money, corruption scandal .. print money. Print money .. keep the stock market high, keep the public happy.
A wise game of poker
Then I got invited for poker at a friend's place. I played .. I lost but I realized that it was not my fault .. it was a royal flush. The problem is not that the markets ran up post Brexit, the problem is not that I did not see that coming, the problem is just that I was refusing to accept it ! problem solved !! no more fuck. Now I am deploying the extra cash back to work. My stock picking skills are still as good and my head much clearer. So I am back to doing what I do best .. making money in stock markets ! Thanks to my poker group :)
This is exactly what happened to me with Brexit. I was following up on Brexit from much before anyone had even heard of that term. Two weeks before the poll, market was full of buzz that Brexit won't win and the market will run up on that. Market had already started pricing it in by running up ahead of the event. Betting market was in favor of Brexit not passing, stock market was running up in anticipation of the same. Top politicians, businessmen, celebrities made very public anti-Brexit speeches. However I was on the other side. My gut feeling was Brexit has a good chance of happening because I had a pulse on the deteriorating economic condition, anti-migrant uprising, and general anti-establishment feeling rising generally in the European countries and the risk was too high for me. A possibility of full blown EU disintegration crisis. So I positioned myself by converting a good chunk of my equity investments into cash.
How I got royally flushed?
And I got my straight flush ! Brexit wins. I got it right when the biggest, wisest, and the strongest got it wrong ! My moment of fame and glory !!! Unfortunately that lasted only for a moment.
In just two days market recovered and then zoomed past the pre-brexit highs. FUCK ! I sat through it in denial. Brexit is a catastrophic event. Market has to crash, but markets started breaking into new highs. FUCK ! In my defense, this was not a move based on fundamentals. It was thanks to the money printing policy adopted by central banks around the world. US decided not to rate hike, BOE was expected to cut rate and ECB to pump $250 billion into the markets to handle Brexit shock. And that was the royal flush thrown at me by the markets. FUCK ! FUCK ! FUCK !!!
What is money printing policy?
A new age policy to solve every problem by printing free money. Poor economic conditions .. print money, political uprising .. print money, bomb blast ... print money, civil unrest .. print money, corruption scandal .. print money. Print money .. keep the stock market high, keep the public happy.
A wise game of poker
Then I got invited for poker at a friend's place. I played .. I lost but I realized that it was not my fault .. it was a royal flush. The problem is not that the markets ran up post Brexit, the problem is not that I did not see that coming, the problem is just that I was refusing to accept it ! problem solved !! no more fuck. Now I am deploying the extra cash back to work. My stock picking skills are still as good and my head much clearer. So I am back to doing what I do best .. making money in stock markets ! Thanks to my poker group :)
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