Market Notes 18-July-2016

• Good results from RIL .. jio launch date not confirmed .. but speculation is it will be launched on Aug'15
• Navi Mumbai airport approval makes Jai corp/RIL very attractive
• France suffers third major terror attack when a truck rams into a crowd celebrating bastille day .. to affect tourism stocks like Thomas cook down 5% in london markets .. so bad for all related stocks ..Cox & Kings .. hotel, travel, tourism, etc especially based out of EU
• Quess Corp a subsidiary of Thomas Cook had a bumper listing at 55% premium giving multi-fold returns to Thomas Cook
• Turkey coup to take over from Erdogan fails as he takes back control within 24 hours .. but relationship with US strains over deportation of Gulen .. conspiracy theory suggests there could be US hand behind the coup. The strained relationship between US & Turkey could impact strategically located US military base in Turkey with direct reach to Iraq, Syria, & Iran
• Banks, lenders and other international business centers will see lower confidence in turkey after this coup but Turkish Central Bank Pledges "Unlimited Liquidity" .. this is second such incident after Britain lost confidence due to Brexit
• This coup might impact turkish EU membership which is due soon .. 
• Overall this will cause further strain in EU markets which is still recovering from Brexit shock and preparing for political shocks from many other countries .. but monday could have been lot worse for the world markets if the Turkey situation had not stabilized .. so this is once again a narrow escape for the bulls
• Theresa May who took over as Britain PM supports Brexit and is negotiating other terms related to trade and is expecting to kickoff Brexit in 2018
• BOE unexpectedly didn't reduce rates this time but is expected to do so in the next meeting which is a future positive and will support FTSE on the downside 
• Deutsche bank asking for heavy recapitalization and is a nuke that everyone is trying to stop from going off .. but has been so for several years now .. DB stocks are hitting new lows though
• All EU banks and property stocks are under huge strain as of now 
• Italy is most likely the next country from where some surprises could pop up political or banking .. 
• 28pages released again points to misguided war by NATO on Iraq and points finger to S Arabia .. this is a source of tension between US & Saudi Arabia ..but surprisingly uneventful and silent on this side ... might impact SA bond sale & aramco ipo
• Civil unrest in US growing with two incidents of shooting at white cops by Black lives matter extremists leading to several casualties .. ISIS has asked the black community people to join their anti-US/anti-establishment propaganda. This is a developing situation but not much impact at present .. maybe will impact elections but is the first credible threat coming from inside US
• Hillary seems to be leading over trump in the latest polls .. which might be good for mkts as it will be continuation of Obama "keep the mkts high" policy
• For some unknown reason Deccan Gold hits 20% ckt on Friday .. has been positive biased since the passage of mines & minerals act and strength in gold commodity prices .. ckt filter revised to 10% by BSE
• Inflation in India is on the higher side which reduces the chances of rate cut in the upcoming RBI meeting
• New RBI governor to be announced soon which will cheer the Indian mkts
• Monsoon is largely ok in India this year and has covered most of the drought prone areas .. caused flooding in MP, Uttarakhand, etc .. this will aid the rural sector growth
• Milk prices are on the upside .. will help backward integrated players .. kwality? has recently received 520 Cr funding from KKR
• Hinduja Ventures has both positives and negatives the group could face some strains because it is london based but on the positive side is expected to launch Nxt Digital next month 
• Piramal step closer to demerger through internal restructuring of business ..
• L&T infotech IPO though fully subscribed is a flop due to fall in grey mkt as premium turns negative, this will impact L&T technology IPO and in effect L&T 
• Jairam Ramesh makes strong statement opposing GST passage again throwing cold water on this major reform
• P Chidambaram to be inducted into the parliament in the monsoon session and expect major disruption since he is also against current GST, however BJP now has the numbers to pass GST even if congress does not support it. Still it remains to be seen how the parliament session progresses
• Govt mulls stake sale in NBCC through OFS and also in SUUTI components include Axis, ITC, L&T .. more OFS could also be planned which will keep pressure on PSU's. PSU banks are positive as they might soon be recapitalized (short term positive). 
• Bond yields around the world are flattening down and stock markets are at record highs which has everyone confused .. new normal?